76_SolarForecast - Informationen/Ideen zu Weiterentwicklung und Support

[Wolle02]

Neue Klimaanlage - das wäre dann aber ein CON Soll/Ist - nicht PV Soll/Ist 🤔😉

Na klar. Ok ich hab nicht gesehen, dass ihr es nur von der PV Prognose habt. Ich dachte es geht allgemein um die Präzision der Prognosen. Dann hab ich nichts gesagt 

[DS_Starter]

@all,

die v 2.6.11 mit der kleinen Verbesserung aus #6256 habe ich eingecheckt -> Morgen früh wie üblich verfügbar.

@Wolle02,

welche API nutzt du? DWD oder etwas anderes?
Kannst uns auch mal deine Readings pvCorrectionFactor_XX zeigen und die Ausgabe von "get ... forecastQualities".

LG,
Heiko

[Wolle02]

@Wolle02,

welche API nutzt du? DWD oder etwas anderes?
Kannst uns auch mal deine Readings pvCorrectionFactor_XX zeigen und die Ausgabe von "get ... forecastQualities".

Hallo Heiko, ich benutze mein DWD-Device. Die DWD- Wetterstation ist von mir aus 2 km Luftlinie weg.

forcastQualities:

Code Auswählen Erweitern

Start: 2026-05-27 14:00:00, Quality: 1.00, Factor: 0.89, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4418 Wh, Sun Alt: 59.30, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-27 15:00:00, Quality: 0.84, Factor: 0.78, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4074 Wh, Sun Alt: 52.40, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 2
Start: 2026-05-27 16:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.97, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 3843 Wh, Sun Alt: 43.60, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-27 17:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.95, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 3464 Wh, Sun Alt: 34.00, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-27 18:00:00, Quality: 0.98, Factor: 0.96, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 3495 Wh, Sun Alt: 24.10, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-27 19:00:00, Quality: 0.93, Factor: 0.93, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 2537 Wh, Sun Alt: 14.90, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-27 20:00:00, Quality: 0.86, Factor: 0.31, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 249 Wh, Sun Alt: 5.70, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 7
Start: 2026-05-27 21:00:00, Quality: 0.00, Factor: 0.39, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 41 Wh, Sun Alt: 0.70, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Start: 2026-05-28 05:00:00, Quality: 0.93, Factor: 1.86, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 39 Wh, Sun Alt: 2.00, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 2
Start: 2026-05-28 06:00:00, Quality: 0.99, Factor: 1.20, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 371 Wh, Sun Alt: 8.60, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-28 07:00:00, Quality: 0.79, Factor: 0.49, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 749 Wh, Sun Alt: 17.50, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-28 08:00:00, Quality: 0.92, Factor: 1.08, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 2835 Wh, Sun Alt: 27.30, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Start: 2026-05-28 09:00:00, Quality: -, Factor: 1.06, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 3503 Wh, Sun Alt: 37.10, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Start: 2026-05-28 10:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.99, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4148 Wh, Sun Alt: 46.60, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-28 11:00:00, Quality: 0.99, Factor: 0.99, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4276 Wh, Sun Alt: 54.90, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 6
Start: 2026-05-28 12:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 1.00, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 5174 Wh, Sun Alt: 60.90, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-28 13:00:00, Quality: 0.96, Factor: 0.95, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4168 Wh, Sun Alt: 62.60, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-28 14:00:00, Quality: 1.00, Factor: 0.89, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 5020 Wh, Sun Alt: 59.40, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-28 15:00:00, Quality: 0.84, Factor: 0.78, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4254 Wh, Sun Alt: 52.50, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 2
Start: 2026-05-28 16:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.97, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4052 Wh, Sun Alt: 43.70, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-28 17:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.95, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 3583 Wh, Sun Alt: 34.10, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-28 18:00:00, Quality: 0.98, Factor: 0.96, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 3132 Wh, Sun Alt: 24.30, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-28 19:00:00, Quality: 0.93, Factor: 0.93, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 2438 Wh, Sun Alt: 15.00, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-28 20:00:00, Quality: 0.86, Factor: 0.31, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 351 Wh, Sun Alt: 5.90, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 7
Start: 2026-05-28 21:00:00, Quality: 0.00, Factor: 0.39, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 23 Wh, Sun Alt: 0.90, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Start: 2026-05-29 05:00:00, Quality: 0.93, Factor: 1.86, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 21 Wh, Sun Alt: 0.10, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 2
Start: 2026-05-29 06:00:00, Quality: 0.99, Factor: 1.20, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 247 Wh, Sun Alt: 8.70, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-29 07:00:00, Quality: 0.79, Factor: 0.49, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 1243 Wh, Sun Alt: 17.60, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-29 08:00:00, Quality: 0.92, Factor: 1.08, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 3242 Wh, Sun Alt: 27.40, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Start: 2026-05-29 09:00:00, Quality: -, Factor: 1.06, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 3698 Wh, Sun Alt: 37.20, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Start: 2026-05-29 10:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.99, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4584 Wh, Sun Alt: 46.70, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-29 11:00:00, Quality: 0.99, Factor: 0.99, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 5082 Wh, Sun Alt: 55.10, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 6
Start: 2026-05-29 12:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 1.00, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 5255 Wh, Sun Alt: 61.00, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-29 13:00:00, Quality: 0.96, Factor: 0.95, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4855 Wh, Sun Alt: 62.80, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-29 14:00:00, Quality: 1.00, Factor: 0.89, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 4545 Wh, Sun Alt: 59.60, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-29 15:00:00, Quality: 0.84, Factor: 0.78, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 3691 Wh, Sun Alt: 52.70, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 2
Start: 2026-05-29 16:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.97, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 3976 Wh, Sun Alt: 43.90, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 3
Start: 2026-05-29 17:00:00, Quality: 0.97, Factor: 0.95, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 3577 Wh, Sun Alt: 34.20, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-29 18:00:00, Quality: 0.98, Factor: 0.96, AI usage: 1, PV expect: 1409 Wh, Sun Alt: 24.40, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 5
Start: 2026-05-29 19:00:00, Quality: 0.93, Factor: 0.93, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 2103 Wh, Sun Alt: 15.10, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 4
Start: 2026-05-29 20:00:00, Quality: 0.86, Factor: 0.31, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 300 Wh, Sun Alt: 6.00, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 7
Start: 2026-05-29 21:00:00, Quality: 0.00, Factor: 0.39, AI usage: 0, PV expect: 20 Wh, Sun Alt: 1.00, Cloud: 0, DaysInRange: 1
Readings pvCorrectionFactor:

Code Auswählen Erweitern

pvCorrectionFactor_06
1.89 (automatic - old factor: 1.61, Sun Alt range: 0, Cloud range: 20, Days in range: 2)
2026-05-27 06:00:03
pvCorrectionFactor_07
1.20 (automatic - old factor: 1.21, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 10, Cloud range: 00, Days in range: 5)
2026-05-27 07:00:06
pvCorrectionFactor_08
0.49 (automatic - old factor: 0.48, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 20, Cloud range: 00, Days in range: 4)
2026-05-27 08:00:09
pvCorrectionFactor_09
1.04 (automatic - old factor: 1.00, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 30, Cloud range: 40, Days in range: 1)
2026-05-27 09:00:06
pvCorrectionFactor_10
1.06 (automatic - old factor: 1.06, Sun Alt range: 35, Cloud range: 00, Days in range: 12)
2026-05-27 10:00:05
pvCorrectionFactor_11
0.99 (automatic - old factor: 1.00, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 45, Cloud range: 15, Days in range: 2)
2026-05-27 11:00:05
pvCorrectionFactor_12
1.03 (automatic - old factor: 1.00, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 55, Cloud range: 15, Days in range: 1)
2026-05-27 12:00:17
pvCorrectionFactor_13
0.89 (automatic - old factor: 1.00, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 60, Cloud range: 15, Days in range: 1)
2026-05-27 13:00:03
pvCorrectionFactor_14
0.95 (automatic - old factor: 0.95, AI result used, Sun Alt range: 65, Cloud range: 00, Days in range: 3)
2026-05-27 14:00:09
pvCorrectionFactor_Auto
on_complex_ai
Aktuell habe ich gerade eine PV Abweichung fortlaufend von 1%

[DS_Starter]

Deine bisher erreichten Qualitäten ("Quality") sehen durchweg recht gut aus. Manchmal gibt es eine Quality "0" oder "-". Dort konnten sie nicht berechnet werden und kommen sicher noch.
Wenn nur 1-4 historische Tage (DaysInRange) als Vergleichswerte vorhanden sind, kann die Streuung für einen Abgleich noch recht hoch sein, muß aber nicht. Das ist aber nicht dramatisch, jeder neue Messwert hilft bei der Verbesserung.
Die für PV eingesetzte "KI" AI::DecisionTree (das ist eine Entscheidungsbaum Logik) will ich im Laufe des Sommers durch unser neuronales Netz FANN ersetzen. Viele wertvolle Erkenntnisse aus der Verbrauchsprognose kann ich dort einfließen lassen.

[300P]

Aktuell habe ich gerade eine PV Abweichung fortlaufend von 1%

👍👏🙌👏👌